OSCAR PICKS: 4 for 5

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris January 23, 2007 @ 12:06 pm

Well…so much for the wisdom of the blogosphere. To virtually every Oscar pundit’s surprise, Dreamgirls – my #2 “lock” and the favored, 800-pound gorilla of the awards season – was knocked out of the Best Picture race by Clint “Could Direct An Oscar Winner In My Sleep” Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima. It’s a sobering reminder of William Goldman’s old saying about Hollywood: Nobody knows anything.

So, basically as usual, I went four for five on my predictions. It’s a bit frustrating to not go all the way in a year where I felt confident, but I’m actually relieved that ol’ Clint’s upset kept the race from getting boring. That growing army of web pundits hasn’t taken my job away after all.

Here are the final five Best Picture nominees, announced this morning by the Motion Picture Academy — my missed pick is in caps:

  1. The Departed
  2. LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
  3. Babel
  4. The Queen
  5. Little Miss Sunshine

The complete nominations are listed here. And my pre-noms essay is still here. For a year in which so many nominees were seen as foregone conclusions, there were quite a few jaw-droppers. Here’s just a few:

  • Dreamgirls has the ignominious status of having the longest number of nominations, eight, without making the Best Picture race. This is a fairly rare occurrence (I’m not sure how rare) and makes predicting the winners on Oscar night even tougher. Will Eddie Murphy take Best Supporting Actor – against a very strong field – as a consolation prize? Will Jennifer Hudson’s expected win be enough? And, most important: Just how many people is producer David Geffen screaming at this morning – above or below 10?
  • To reiterate my above point, Best Supporting Actor is now, officially, the most competitive category, with five guys who all richly deserve the statue: Alan Arkin (LMS), comeback kid Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), comeback megastar Murphy, can’t-believe-he’s-so-good Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) and the surprise, Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), who’s been nominated twice before and might just be due this year.
  • Whoops of delight I let out this morning: Paul Greengrass getting a Best Director nod for United 93 (guess some watched it after all); both Alfonso Cuaron and Guillermo del Toro making the screenplay races; and, the biggest shocker, total underdog Ryan Gosling (Half-Nelson) was recognized in the Best Actor contest.
  • I said it in the essay, I’ll say it again: L.A. people loves them some Babel. It’s got the second-largest number of nods, seven, including a double-shot in the Supporting Actress race. With Dreamgirls out of Best Picture, Departed probable to win only Best Director, and The Queen and Clint likely to get awarded in other ways, Best Picture now looks like a race between – no joke – Babel and Little Miss Sunshine.

See you next year.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 1 Dec 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris December 1, 2006 @ 9:53 am

Sound the trumpets! For the music business, Black Friday was…well, in the black, sorta. Sales for the massively important Thanksgiving week were flat with the same week last year – which, in this dismal year, is a kind of triumph; 2006 weekly sales have lagged the year before almost every week since January. And speaking of black…

The Blah Album? His will was done: Jay-Z nailed down the Billboard 200’s #1 spot with Kingdom Come, his Jordan-joins-the-Wizards album. But the victory may have been Pyrrhic. Not only did the disc earn lackluster reviews, it fell considerably short of expectations. A day or two after the album’s release, early forecasts pegged Kingdom Come’s first week at nearly 800,000 copies. The final tally? About 680,000 – while that’s still the best one-week sales total of Jigga’s career, it’s a ways below the biggest sales winners this year. And make no mistake, the Def Jam mogul wanted to own that title (this is a guy who supposedly named his last CD after the day record stores turn a profit). Instead, the one-week record for 2006 sits comfortably with country cutie-boys Rascal Flatts, who nailed it last April with 722,000 in sales for Me And My Gang. Still, for a businessman like Mr. Sean Carter, it’s better to take the long view: this is his ninth #1 album, tying him with the Stones for third place among all chart-toppers. And if J-Hova decides to stay out of retirement, one more #1 disc will tie him with Elvis Presley for second place. Then he’ll just have to post nine more #1s to beat this other little band, who also released a record last week

Rubber Sold. The Beatles’ Love, the band-approved, George Martin–produced mashup revue of the band’s recorded catalog that serves as a soundtrack to Cirque de Soleil’s Vegas extravaganza, debuted at #4 with about 272,000 copies. That’s either mediocre for the biggest pop group of all time or excellent for a strange mishmash of old, much-purchased music. Indeed, there’s not much precedent to draw upon to determine how well Love should have sold. The only other major act to release a label-sanctioned mashup album was – ha ha! – Jay-Z, whose Collision Course debuted at #1 in the fall of ‘04 with similar numbers and an assist from Linkin Park. (And we’ll never know how many copies The Grey Album “sold” – what is it about the Fabs and Jigga and mashups?) The very concept of Love is a little hard to explain to casual record buyers – unlike, say, The Beatles 1, the compilation that dominated Christmas 2000 and kicked off the ’00s trend of best-selling, all-encompassing single-disc greatest-hits albums. If Love is going to sell beyond the hardcore Beatles base – admittedly, a large base – one of two things will have to happen: (a) word of mouth will get around that it’s not only unusual but good – most critics, me included, have been pleasantly surprised by the artistic merit of the circus-show soundtrack; or (b) the Beatles’ promotional army will have to give the CD a big push, which, if the rumors are true, would come in the form of a big Steve Jobs coming-out party. Maybe even a green Apple Corps. iPod?

Last laugh. Standing between Jay and the Fabs on the album chart was the biggest debut by an American Idol contestant so far this year: the goofily titled “band” Daughtry, fronted by Idol ’06’s fourth runner-up Chris Daughtry. The record’s jaw-dropping 304,000-disc first week came just 12,000 copies short of the debut CD by Carrie Underwood last November – and she was the winner of the ‘05 Idol. At the risk of insulting the very manly Chris, he appears to be the next Clay Aiken – a non-winner who exacts revenge on the actual Idol victor months later on the charts, the way Aiken has consistently outsold the man who beat him, Ruben Studdard. Under ideal circumstances, the Idol franchise should have teed up ‘06 winner Taylor Hicks’s CD for the Thanksgiving-week retail slot, but Hicks’s slow-going debut wasn’t ready yet (and if the rumors are true, he very nearly missed the holiday season altogether). Instead, Taylor Hicks the album will appear in an awkward mid-December slot, three weeks after Daughtry enjoyed Turkey Season and the fat sales that go with it.

Immoveable object vs. “Irreplaceable” force. Last week, hip-hop friendly crooner Akon pulled a rare coup on the Hot 100 singles week, nailing down both #1 and #2 simultaneously. He did it not with “Smack That,” his collabo with Eminem that’s been sitting in the top five for a month; but with the Snoop Dogg team-up “I Wanna Love You,” which got a big boost from its iTunes debut and vaulted 16 places into the #1 slot. (I suspect a large chunk of the single’s buyers were enticed by its uncensored title.) The wall of Akon looked unbreachable, but this week one of his two hits falls away, as “Smack” is kicked out of the #2 spot by Beyoncé’s much-beloved single “Irreplaceable.” B’s single has been Billboard’s biggest airplay gainer for the last three weeks, which means we’re looking at a classic airplay-vs.-sales battle for the top of the chart: Akon’s airplay is modest but growing, but his sales are huge; B’s airplay is dominant but her sales fall just shy of Akon’s. It’ll be interesting to see how holiday iPod giving affects sales of both digital songs.

We sold for cheap. Jay-Z will almost definitely repeat at #1 next week – and if he doesn’t, look for haters in the press to point and laugh at him. The week’s biggest debut will likely be the too-long-in-exile Clipse, who just released what is reportedly the best hip-hop album of the year. Seeing them come close to topping Jigga next week – unlikely, but stranger things have happened – would be mind-blowing.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 10 Nov 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris November 10, 2006 @ 6:37 pm

Last week I found myself grumbling about a Disney-TV starlet who held back a cool rock album from #1. This week, I found myself rooting for her:

Karmic payback for Colbert. I dropped a little hint at the end of my post last week suggesting that Barry Manilow would debut at #1 with The Greatest Songs of the Sixties, an instant followup to last February’s smash #1 CD The Greatest Songs of the Fifties. This would have given Manilow a mind-blowing two #1 albums in a single calendar year – something he’d never achieved in his ’70s heyday – and also given Barry the record as the oldest guy ever to score a pair of chart-topping albums. Well, forget all that: Miley Cyrus, star of the Disney Channel’s Hannah Montana, held on to #1 in her second week by the tiniest of margins, 203,000 copies to Manilow’s 202,000, according to Billboard. This is the second consecutive week that the Hannah soundtrack confounds sales predictions, following last week’s easy trouncing of My Chemical Romance (who tumble a worrying 64% in their week two). Manilow’s album looked like a strong contender, and like most adult-oriented albums nowadays, it gets a boost from such atypical sales channels as – no joke – QVC. Unfortunately for Barry, when you buy an album from a TV ad, shopping channel or website, the sale only gets booked to the SoundScan charts when it ships; thus any CDs purchased over the weekend and shipped the following Monday or Tuesday fall into the next week’s charts. So look for Barry’s Sixties album to hold well in its second week. As for me, I have no major beef with Barry, schlocky though he is. But after this year’s Colbert-vs.-Manilow Emmy travesty, I must say I’m not favorably inclined toward the man who Writes The Songs. So, Hannah Montana, I thank you, and Stephen Colbert thanks you.

Third time’s the charm? There’s no major action or upsets on the Hot 100 singles chart this week; Justin Timberlake takes a second-week victory lap with “My Love,” and most of the Top Five is static. But Beyoncé Knowles takes a big leap into the Top 10 (24–9) with the third single from her B’Day album, “Irreplaceable” (with its sassy refrain, “To the left, to the left/Everything you own in a box to the left”). In this space two months ago, I predicted that her acerbic second single, “Ring the Alarm” – which debuted high, just outside the Top 10 – would die a quick death due to its radio-unfriendliness. In short, I was proved right: after materializing all the way up at #12, “Ring” crept briefly to #11 before tumbling. Indeed, in general, B’Day has underperformed by Beyoncé standards, as none of its singles has sunk in for very long at radio, and after the album’s sizeable sales debut it hasn’t spent much time in the Top 10. But the acoustic-ish, midtempo “Irreplaceable” should reverse all that, doing for Ms. Knowles what “My Love” is doing for JT: keeping a big-splash album alive well past its on-sale date.

Hicks and other hicks. With fifth-place runner-up Kellie Pickler debuting at #9 on the album chart (and #1 country) with her debut album – just two weeks after the return of 2003 winner Ruben Studdard – the American Idol silly season is clearly in full swing. Before Santa comes down the chimney, Simon Fuller’s TV-and-music juggernaut is going to spawn at least three more albums, including the debuts by 2006 winner Taylor Hicks and first runner-up Katharine McPhee (either Mario Vasquez or Chris Daughtry might also drop in that timeframe). You could almost spend every week between now and New Year’s listening to a new record by a former shop clerk–turned–melisma whore, if you wanted. Just in case this past week made you feel a little too upbeat about the power of voting.

Did somebody say something about “cleaning up”? Aussie/country heartthrob Keith Urban, who’s spending the first week of his new album’s release in rehab, is expected to move more than a third of a million albums before this week is out. It’ll be the biggest sales week ever for Mr. Nicole Kidman no matter what, but capturing the top slot will mean getting past the Now! That’s What I Call Music juggernaut, which is expected to move about the same amount, and not being able to promote the album while he’s kicking the sweet stuff will give Urban a tough time. At the very least, he should comfortably top the new one from Mom-friendly crooner Josh Groban. This chart matchup too boring for you? Well, this will be the last sleepy week before the big guns come out: the Game and Akon next week; and the Beatles, Jay-Z and U2 just before Turkey Day.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 2 Nov 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris November 2, 2006 @ 5:44 pm

Apologies, again, to those of you who regularly read my chart rundowns, for last week’s no-show – the result of a merciless day-job workload.

That said, we didn’t miss much last week: Diddy debuted at #1, with a solid but lackluster total (I sent a question to Billboard’s chart columnist about Diddy’s feat; they ran it online here). And Justin Timberlake moved back into the album chart’s Top Five with his two-month-old album – foreshadowing his triumph this week on the singles chart:

If he wrote us a symphony In a victory for both Cameron Diaz’s boyfriend and fans of great pop, Justin’s “My Love” – in my opinion, the second-best pop song of 2006 – storms to the top of the Billboard Hot 100. By leaping from #5 to #1 in one swoop, Trousersnake halts the ascent of such radio garbage as Akon’s cheese-fest with Eminem, “Smack That,” and – yes! – Hinder’s execrable “Lips of an Angel” (which falls to #4; please let this song be over). “My Love” gives Justin back-to-back #1 singles after “SexyBack,” which is still in the Top Five this week. While his two hits were interrupted in the top slot by Ludacris’s unobjectionable “Money Maker,” Timberlake nonetheless becomes the first act to score consecutive #1 singles since Usher did it back in ‘04 with a jaw-dropping four-single streak (”Yeah!,” “Burn,” “Confessions Pt. II,” “My Boo”). How’d Trousersnake do it? Heavy radio airplay fueled most of the run, but the final push came from iTunes, where a “single mix” of “My Love” – sold separately from the album mix – is now the Apple store’s top-selling download. Interestingly, the single mix’s key feature is its removal of the “Let Me Talk to You” prelude, which appears on both the album mix and in the “My Love” video; most fans of the song agree the prelude is pretty weak and expendable, so in this case the public’s vote exhibits good taste.

Don’t break her chart, her achy-breaky chart. Rock critics are lousy chart predictors, part MCCXVI: For the second time this year, a left-field pop act famed from a TV show steals the #1 spot on the album chart from a long-favored contender. The new #1 album in America is not My Chemical Romance’s much-hyped (and generally excellent) The Black Parade but, rather, the soundtrack to Hannah Montana, a Disney Channel show starring the daughter of Billy Ray “Achy Breaky” Cyrus. Squeaky-clean Miley Cyrus doesn’t have much in common with the steamy, Diddy-svengali’d girl group Danity Kane; but just as those pussycat dolls stunned jaded insiders back in August by thumping OutKast for #1, Hannah wins in a walk over Gerard Way’s band of restyled emo-warriors, 281,000 copies to 240,000. Like the Killers with their #2 debut earlier this month, MCR can take solace in scoring their best sales week ever; also, last week their awesome single “Welcome to the Black Parade” took the top of the Modern Rock chart, evicting the Killers’ “When You Were Young.” As for Miss Cyrus, her win cements the Disney media empire’s dominance over the 2006 charts: with 10 months of the year over, the triple-platinum High School Musical soundtrack is still in the Top 40 and all but unstoppable as the year’s #1 album.

Bucking the trend. The news out of retailers is actually pretty good this week, as CD sales are up just over 5% compared with the same week a year ago – only the second week this fall to achieve that feat. It’s also heartening to see some acts defying gravity with “good holds,” as they say in Hollywood – i.e., modest weekly sales drops. Having suffered the slings and arrows of fickle hipsters, the Killers are still in the Top 10 in their fourth week, and Justin’s album is still in the Top Five, both with low-double-digit drops. The other Top 10–dweller with legs is octogenarian Tony Bennett, who debuted two weeks ago with his Duets album (there’s another idea he stole from Sinatra) and, after a second-week drop, is actually moving back up this week, with sales at Starbucks likely giving him a boost. Hmm…Hannah Montana, Tony Bennett…kids, elders – these are the year’s big winners. Have I hit that point home enough this year?

Making Bennett look hip. Was I just saying something about elders? Next week, a veteran artist is going to score his second #1 album of 2006. Yep, two chart-toppers in one year, and he’s nearing Social Security age. No, not that guy. No, I wish it were that guy. No, this guy will come and he’ll give without taking, but we’ll send him away.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 19 Oct 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris October 20, 2006 @ 9:50 am

The recent blockbuster numbers posted by the likes of Beyoncé and Timberlake have receded, clearing the way for another lackluster disc atop the charts…

Rod and His Package. With an solid, unspectacular 184,000 copies sold, Rod “Check Out My Crotch” Stewart lands at #1 with his latest wheezy collection of standards – this time of the “Rock Classics” variety. Evanescence makes this possible by plummeting 63% from its rollicking #1 debut last week. This is Rod’s fourth career #1 album, joining the unimpeachable 1971 classic Every Picture Tells a Story; the dopey, “Da Ya Think I’m Sexy?”–fueled 1979 smash Blondes Have More Fun; and the third volume of his four-record Great American Songbook series – all four of which, from 2002 to 2005, debuted in Billboard’s top five. Indeed, ever since Clive Davis dreamed up the Rod-sings-the-oldies format a half-decade ago, it’s perenially propped up BMG Records’ fourth-quarter coffers, as each record has appeared like clockwork in mid-October and sold like an Oprah book-club selection. So, with this unofficial fifth volume, Rod benefits from the autumnal habits of aural-wallpaper-demanding soccer moms. But he also takes advantage of 2006, The Year Of The Fart, with its low sales hurdles and the fleeing of young record-buyers in droves. Okay, okay, enough – I’ll leave Rod alone. After all, given his lecherous, Pickler-ogling appearance this year on American Idol and his more accurate portrayal a few years back on South Park, I suppose it’s a wonder the old boy can get it up these days.

Look out! Falling album. Evanescence is but one example this week of steep, 60-percent-plus drops by last week’s big-debuting discs: the Killers stumble by 68%, George Strait by 62% and Monica by a whopping 70% (she plummets out of the Top 25 entirely, down from #8 to #26). As I noted earlier this week on an Idolator post, big CD debuts have become like big movie debuts: if the product falls 50% or less the second week, the company’s thrilled. (In Hollywood, studios call a 40ish-percent drop a “good hold.”) Movies are fighting the tendency of multiplexes to overplay a flick on multiple screens the first weekend and then shunt it to the side to make way for more product. In music, it’s a different problem, as diehard fans must have their favorite act’s new disc in week one, but casual fans never show up in week two – many of them probably taking avantage of the diehards who upload or burn the disc for them. The result: week-two drops of sixty-something percent are the New Normal. As further evidence that only folks with gray hair still buy CDs that are more than seven days old, behold Bob Dylan. As we recall, Modern Times debuted at #1 six weeks ago; it’s down to #29, which sounds sorta meh – until you consider that Dylan’s never lost more than 30ish-percent in any week (this week’s drop: a mere 26%). In short, it’s taken ol’ Bob seven weeks to get to the bottom rungs of the Top 30, while Monica is just three spaces above him in her week two.

It’s All About the Lincolns. Rod’s underwhelming high-100s chart-topper will be succeeded next week by a similarly respectable-but-underwhelming debut: Sean Daddy Puff Doody, or whatever he is, will ring the bell, with a number likely boosted by deep discounting that will price him well below $10, maybe even a few bucks above $5. We’re several weeks into the final, make-or-break quarter of this horrible music year, and the record industry’s gonna have to do better than it’s doing right now if it hopes to erase its year-to-date 5–6% sales slump. Look for My Chemical Romance, hitting stores next Tuesday (just in time for Halloween), to kick things up a notch before this lackluster October is out.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 12 Oct 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris October 12, 2006 @ 5:26 pm

Normally I lead with album-chart news, but this week I must begin by honoring a singles-chart achievement by the Bard of Snark:

Revenge of the nerd. Beloved by generations of pubescent boys, “Weird Al” Yankovic scores the biggest hit of his career, as his Chamillionaire parody “White and Nerdy” vaults from #28 to #9 – Yankovic’s first-ever Top 10 hit, just two weeks shy of his 47th birthday. That’s right, Al fans, “White” has gone further than “Eat It” (#12, 1984) or “Smells Like Nirvana” (#35, 1992), his only other career Top 40 hits. It’s a victory for anyone who feels, as I do, that “White” is the funniest and best thing Al’s done in more than a decade. Even better, it’s the result not of sales gimmicks or hype but good old-fashioned viral word-of-mouth. Al’s debut in the Top 30 of the Hot 100 last week was notable – his highest debut ever, and instantly his second-biggest hit – but it wasn’t that surprising in the age of iTunes; a single week of sales can send songs crashing onto the chart, with little or no radio support, as fans rush in with 99-cent clicks. This week’s move, however, is a real schocker: apparently even more people wanted Al’s single in its second week as did in its first, as another digital sales burst (radio airplay is still negligible) spurs the song into the Top 10. As if Al’s cup t’weren’t runnething over enough, he scores a second simultaeneous Hot 100 hit, as his Green Day spoof “Canadian Idiot” debuts at #82. To paraphrase Dazed and Confused’s Wooderson, that’s what Al loves about these junior-high-school boys: he gets older, they stay the same age.

Killer or be killed. As predicted for weeks, Brandon Flowers’s gang of reborn anthem-rockers fell to Evanescence on the album chart. Amy Lee’s faux-goths drained the wallets of almost 450,000 Emily The Stranges, an impressive number if not an all-out blockbuster. (That sound you just heard was My Chemical Romance’s managers and accountants salivating.) As for the Killers, the news is not all bad. Sam’s Town’s 315,000 in sales is a disappointment in terms of expectations – the big push on the MTV awards, two years of glossy magazine spreads, Flowers’s big mouth – but it’s their biggest single week of sales ever; and over on the Modern Rock radio chart, “When You Were Young” evicts the Red Hot Chili Peppers from the #1 slot. Meanwhile, online, the snark rages on, with scores of digerati piling on, while Slate’s Jonah Weiner mounts an eloquent half-defense of the album. (Me? I think the followup single, “Bones,” is lame, but there’s a few minor gems on there.)

Owning the sexy. Seven weeks – that’s how long Justin Timberlake has been #1 with “SexyBack” on the Hot 100, a chart that combines song sales and radio airplay. Yet if you look at the sales-only chart (Top Digital Songs) used to calculate the overall Hot 100, “SexyBack” got evicted from #1 weeks ago, first by the Fray and this week by (gack) Hinder. It’s an interesting study in how the charts work: big iTunes sales were what propelled Justin to #1 in the first place, but wall-to-wall Top 40 radio airplay is keeping him there, now that sales have fallen off. His followup hit, the superior, hipster-praised “My Love,” is rising fast, up to #13 this week and threatening to enter the Top 10 while “SexyBack” is still #1. The main difference between this hit and its predecessor? “My Love” is being propelled by airplay and sales almost equally, with radio leading the way. iTunes users have been able to buy the song for weeks, so there’s not likely to be a one-week burst of sales for “My Love”; if it’s destined to follow “SexyBack” at #1, it’ll have to get there the old, one-week-at-a-time way. The bigger lesson: first singles from albums sold on iTunes have an easier time on the charts than second or third ones do. Not like any of Trousersnake’s songs is hurting much.

From smoking to dead. Last week saw the most red-hot Tuesday of CD releases so far this year, as Evanescence and the Killers were joined by such critic-proof acts as Beck (#7), the Decemberists (#35) and the Hold Steady (#128), along with country giant-killer George Strait (#3) and not-so-Miss-Thang-anymore R&B girl Monica (#8). This week, in one of their usual bouts of idiotic scheduling, the labels have released a lot of middling crap, and it’s anyone’s guess whether Evanescence will repeat or get tossed by Rod Stewart, desecrating more standards, or Lloyd Banks, pumping out some g-g-g-g-generic G-Unit bullshit. If only the Killers’ handlers had been smart enough to push the release of Sam’s Town back just one week, to get out of the way of Amy Lee, the fussy Mr. Flowers would’ve had a #1 record; someone at Island–Def Jam needs to get fired, or at least buy a calendar.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 5 Oct 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris October 5, 2006 @ 2:31 pm

Last week’s sleepy charts gave way to a real horsereace this week – and not even Oprah could whip her pony through the tape…

20 Y.O. got no help from “O.” Nothing sells product like Oprah – James Blunt can credit at least a third of his double-platinum sales this year to Winfrey’s show. So when Janet Jackson made a flawlessly timed appearance on the Mighty O’s couch last week, just as her new album hit stores, everyone predicted (including yours truly) that Ms. Wardrobe Malfunction was destined for #1. But we – and Janet – forgot about Luda: for the third time in a row, Ludacris debuts at #1, as his Release Therapy beats Janet by less than 20,000 copies. The unhelpfully titled 20 Y.O. is now Janet’s second album in a row to debut in the runner-up slot. Right after Nipplegate, 2004’s Damita Jo also came up short at #2, ending Janet’s streak of five consecutive #1 studio albums. That streak began way back in 1986 with Control, Jackson’s pop masterpiece; 20 Y.O. billed itself as a sequel to that album – from its title to its marketing blitz to Janet’s attempt to return to her 20-year-old figure (minus another stone or two). But 20 Y.O. is no Control, musically or commercially. Her chart shortfall is an embarrassing face-plant, sorta like watching someone’s tarted-up middle-aged mom trying to get into a club and getting dissed at the velvet rope. Actually, it’s exactly like that.

White and charty. The Hot 100 singles chart is a veritable parade of honkies-made-good this week, as white-boy music takes up four of the top five slots – from the immoveable Justin to the pleasant, inoffensive Volvo Rock bands Snow Patrol and the Fray. You can credit, or blame, iTunes; the Fray’s “How to Save a Life” is the country’s top download this week (thanks in large part to Grey’s Anatomy), and the others are all given a lift by 99-cent downloads. As I’ve said before, digital sales generally boost stuff that appeals to suburbanites…the good, the bad, the ugly. On the ugly tip, Hinder’s crapfest “Lips of an Angel” continues its march up the list, landing at #3, just two heartbeats away from Justin (still #1 after six weeks – the Sexy is officially Back, methinks) and Ludacris (waiting patiently at #2 for Trousersnake to put it back in his pants). On the ugly-and-proud tip, “Weird Al” Yankovic benefits from the YouTube revolution with his highest-ever debuts on both the Hot 100 and the album chart: “White and Nerdy” crashes onto the singles list at #29, and Straight Outta Lynwood is his first Top 10 album ever. Imagine if he’d included a “SexyBack” parody…

Goth chicks win – shoulda kept the eyeliner. Brandon Flowers’s decision to drop the Maybelline for the Killers’ second album is looking like a worse decision all the time, as they will debut at #2 next week behind Evanescence. Idol of poseur goth girls nationwide Amy Lee will get to gloat at departed bandmate Ben Moody, as the album he fronted, Fallen, never topped the chart. But screw all that – I’m wondering how high the Decemberists will land with their major-label debut, and if the critically adored Hold Steady can break the Top 40.

LIVE: A VIRGIN

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris September 25, 2006 @ 5:18 pm

My wife and I spent Saturday having a blast with friends and relatives at VirginFest – the first in a hoped-for annual series of multiact festival concerts, held at Baltimore’s Pimlico Raceway. (Insert Altamont Speedway joke here.)

Baltimore was a long way to travel for what amounted to a massive Richard Branson branding event. Not all of the acts lived up to the big stage or the advance hype, and thanks to a fluke or two on my calendar, I’ve actually seen, or am about to see, several of the performers at their own shows this same month (or very recently). So for us, at least, the event was something less than momentous. I also heard through my uncle’s wife, who has connections to some of the organizers, that the show did well enough but was far from a blockbuster.

Still, if all VirginFest accomplishes is establishing a beachhead for 21st Century festival concerts on the East Coast – after the twin disasters of Woodstock ‘99 and the ill-fated Field Day Fest in 2003 – I will be grateful. I’ve watched helplessly over the last five years as Coachella, Bonnaroo and the formerly-traveling, now-stationary Lollapalooza blossomed into beloved all-day (or multiday) events, miles away from anyplace I could get to by car. Not unlike New York rap stars fighting their Atlanta, Houston and L.A. counterparts to win back a genre they invented, festival organizers needed to bring the entire festival-show genre back to the East. God bless ‘em for finally pulling one off.

Here’s a quick rundown of the acts we saw – our experience was far from exhaustive – and how they fared. Let’s start with the day’s undisputed winner.

Scissor Sisters: Relegated to the second stage, and not even to the cleanup slot (that went to Flaming Lips, whom we missed), these queens stole the day away from far more established acts, with a set that was exhilirating, notably polished and damn sexy. Who knew their sleek, Elton John–Leo Sayer sound would translate so phenomenally well live? Token girl Ana Matronic is a charming mistress of ceremonies, multi-instrumentalist BabyDaddy leads a remarkably tight band, and Jake Shears is not only a tornado of a lead singer, he’s so hot even straight boys can’t stop watching him. The early word on their new album, Ta-Dah (out tomorrow), has been good, not great, but Scissor Sisters own the stage like they’re about to conquer the world.

The Raconteurs: The day’s other big winners; my wife grew from disinterest to mild ardor watching them rip it up live. The only things keeping the Raconteurs from replacing the White Stripes as Jack White’s permanent vehicle are his loyalty to Meg and his unwillingness to give them his “A” material. Watching White and Brendan Benson work the stage – with their current array of B+ White songs and A– Benson songs – they already look like pros, and their sound is powerful. This was the second time I’d seen White’s so-called side project, the first being a Tower Records in-store back in April, and I felt again what I felt back then – onstage, White doesn’t hold back, and what feels tentative on the Raconteurs’ album feels bruising and potent live. I’ll be seeing them again tomorrow night at Roseland.

The Killers: Here again, a band I’d already seen (last year at New York’s one-time Across the Narrows festival) didn’t change my opinion of them much. Unlike the Raconteurs, though, the Killers had room for improvement; they have a good rock songbook that’s hard to bring across live. And one year later – as Brandon Flowers & co. prepare to release their massively anticipated sophomore album and are positioning themselves as heirs to Springsteen and U2 – their tepid live presence is becoming a greater liability. My uncle, watching the show with us, put it best when he said that the set started and ended strong but sagged in the middle. Flowers seems to sink into a torpor when he’s not performing one of the group’s big hits – occasionally, even while they are doing a hit, as on their tentative “Mr. Brightside.” But the Killers rallied big-time for the set-closer, “All These Things I’ve Done,” whose “I’ve got soul, but I’m not a soldier” chant was as rousing as if they’d been joined by a gospel choir.

Gnarls Barkley: You’d think that Danger Mouse’s dense soundscapes would be hard to reproduce live. And you’d be right. Gnarls’s set was plagued by a muddy sound mix – a killer when you’ve got around a dozen people onstage, including a string quartet – and the spottiness of their material. Let’s face it, St. Elsewhere is a three-star album surrounding a five-star single, and like the ’60s psychedlic epics to which it aspires, it sounds better as a coherent piece than it does when you pull its songs apart. Keeping with their policy of always playing in costume, Cee-Lo, Danger Mouse et al. came out dressed in Roman regalia; Cee-Lo wore a full centurion getup, and the backup singers and female string players looked foxy in their togas. Having seen Gnarls perform on TV and now live, I get the sense that each of their songs is too knotty to work onstage until it’s been ripped apart, reassembled and then rehearsed continually – which is what made “Crazy,” their hit and the song they’ve performed the most, also the best live cut, with a chill-inducing string intro and a haunting piano line. That and “Smily Faces,” the set-closer, were the most rousing parts of an otherwise spotty set.

WolfMother: Already onstage when we arrived, these loud-and-thrashy Aussies were competent and energetic, but they’re going to need at least another album’s worth of material before they’re worthy of this big a venue. The songs were undistinguished and sludgy and couldn’t distract me from the food tent.

The Who: I go 35 years without ever seeing these guys live, and then suddenly I see them twice in two weeks. Thanks to a well-connected friend, I saw Roger n’ Pete two weeks ago at the North American tour-opener in Philadelphia, and they rocked; they were so good that they overcame any cynicism I had about their umpteenth “farewell” tour or their well-intentioned but hit-and-miss new material. Less than two weeks later, Daltrey looked like the road was already getting to him, with his voice hoarser and his energy level flagging. Townshend was his usual spry self, executing a few jumping guitar moves and playing the hell out of “Baba O’Reilly,” but they both looked like they’d rather be doing their own gig. The hero of the band continues to be drummer Zak Starkey, who looks and plays more like Keith Moon every day (minus, one hopes, the excess and the tantrums). The main highlight of the set for me, having just seen these guys, was the new addition of “Eminence Front,” one of the Who’s very last (1982) and simplest hits – and secretly, one of my favorites.

Red Hot Chili Peppers: We couldn’t stay for the entirety of the Chilis’ show-closing set, because we valued our life spans too much to get stuck in the same ungodly traffic leaving the site that we’d experienced getting there. But I’m glad I managed to catch some of my favorite RHCP cuts, including a hard-edged “Can’t Stop” and a surprisingly rocking “Scar Tissue” (thank you, John Frusciante, still the band’s unsung MVP). The most depressing thing about finally seeing the Chili Peppers live isn’t pondering how much older both you and they are these days; it’s realizing that they will neither fall short of nor exceed your expectations. Onstage, they look like…the Chili Peppers, leaping, pogoing, lurching, and playing like the seasoned pros they are. That might not make them life-changing, but it does make them something like old friends.

CHARTING THE CHARTS: 21 Sep 06

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris September 21, 2006 @ 5:25 pm

I am migrating this weekly feature from my LiveJournal, where I’ve been testing it out for the past three weeks, over here to my “official” blog. I can’t tell if a lot of people are reading these Charting The Charts posts, but I enjoy writing them.

To my knowledge, I am the only person online who’s attempting something like this – running down Billboard chart happenings (that’s not unusual) and then dissecting them, adding a dose of opinion and behind-the-scenes theorizing.

Anyway, here’s what’s going on in this week’s charts.

Bringing sheckels back. Justin Timberlake takes over the top of the album chart from Beyoncé, one week after her impressive, if a little below-expectations, #1 debut with 540,000 CDs sold. Justin’s FutureSex/LoveSounds scores an even more impressive 684,000 copies, not quite the 700K some were predicting but damned close. The difference: Justin had a bigger single at radio and MTV. Beyoncé’s “Déjà Vu” was a big hit but a quick one, peaking in the top five and then dropping in about two months; Timberlake’s “SexyBack” is now in its fourth week at #1 and culturally ubiquitous. I also think Timberlake is the guilty pleasure of a much wider audience than Beyoncé and sold to some in-the-closet rock and rap fans. Still, both “B” and “JT” set personal-best solo-career sales records. Then again, both reached greater heights with their respective ex-troupes: Destiny’s Child’s Survivor had a bigger first week back in the day, and *N Sync’s one-week sales record – No Strings Attached, March 2000, 2.4 million copies in seven days – will stand for a long, long time.

Strait and narrow. Fred Bronson leads his “Chart Beat” column with big country-chart news this week, veteran hitmaker George Strait’s capture of the title for most #1 country songs: a staggering 41. (Just for perspective, the champs on the pop chart, the Beatles, hold the record with a scant 20 chart-toppers; Elvis and Mariah are tied for second with 17 each.) The most interesting tidbit about Bronson’s writeup of this achievement? The guys Strait beat to take over the title. Forget your Garth Brookses, your Willie Nelsons, your Patsy Clines – the former record-holders are a parade of oh-yeah-I-think-I-know-that-guys: Conway Twitty, Merle Haggard and Ronnie Milsap. Seriously, other than maybe Haggard, these are not acts that anyone north of Virginia or east of Indiana will be familar with. For that matter, Strait himself, who’s been in the game since the early ’80s, isn’t half as famous to city slickers as, say, Toby Keith or Alan Jackson. The point: not only is country music its own little world, but its biggest chart successes are modest fellers that don’t care if us blue-staters have ever heard of ‘em.

Get out! Right now? Remember JoJo? She’s a tween-pop starlet who scored her first big hit at age 13 in the summer of 2004 with “Leave (Get Out),” which peaked at #12. I kind of fell in love with “Leave” and put it on my Summer 2004 comp that year. Two years later and a few months shy of her 16th birthday (I’m sure an MTV camera crew is on the case already), she is saved from one-hit-wonder-dom with a massive jump to #3 on the Hot 100 with “Too Little Too Late,” a pleasant if thinly-veiled rewrite of her first hit. Here again is evidence of the major shift on the charts since iTunes was added to the mix. Back in ‘04, “Leave” probably would’ve been as big a hit on the Hot 100 if digital sales were factored in, but with the chart totally slanted toward radio, it didn’t even make the Top 10; two years later, JoJo coasts into the penthouse, with what is basically the same song. It’s as if JoJo’s handlers rewrote the first hit to give her a do-over. Smart.

Back from the closet. The biggest new release this week comes from American Idol spawn Clay Aiken, who – even after breaking the hearts of millions of girls with poor gaydar – is expected to move about 200K copies of his “comeback” CD. That probably won’t be enough to unseat Trousersnake, who’ll drop at least 50%…but half of 684,000 CDs is still a tidy sum. But the best news of all in this week’s new releases concerns Fergie’s The Duchess, which reportedly is tanking not living up to optimistic sales projections. Join me next week, won’t you, and we can laugh and point at her together – whether or not she’s peed in her pants again.

SHOWN UP BY THE RUNNER-UP

Filed under: Uncategorized — Chris August 23, 2006 @ 8:24 am

By request, a list of well-known #2 singles, many of them stopped by crappy, forgettable #1s.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the agonizing sight of Gnarls Barkley’s “Crazy,” the undisputed best single of 2006, getting stuck at #2 on the Billboard charts thanks to the dreadful Fergie smash “London Bridge.”

In passing, I mentioned that Gnarls getting stuck in the runner-up slot was maddening but not shameful (quoting myself): “a #2 peak puts ‘Crazy’ in good company. Someday I’ll have to do a blog post about the long list of classic #2 singles – ‘Like a Rolling Stone,’ ‘Dancing in the Dark,’ ‘Since U Been Gone’ – many of which were foiled by forgettable #1s.”

That someday is today, as one of my loyal readers instantly requested such a post. I should confess straight away, the research for this was easy – I mean too easy; junior-high-term-paper easy – because there’s a single source: The Billboard Book of No. 2 Singles. Yup, they actually publish such a thing; it’s meant as a companion volume to Fred Bronson’s beloved Billboard Book of Number One Hits. The No. 2 Singles book not only tells a little story about each hit-that-didn’t-quite-make-it, there’s also data about which song(s) prevented the #2 hit in question from going all the way. What I aim to provide here is some critical judgment about the songs that wuz robbed.

 Read more…

- Next Page >>>